2026 Kentucky Derby picks, odds, predictions, favorites: Bets from elite expert who had $1,045 win last year

May 2, 2026 - 03:48

Gene Menez has released his official selections for the 2026 Kentucky Derby, set for Saturday, May 2 at Churchill Downs. The veteran handicapper, who turned a modest wager into a $1,045 payday on last year's race, is back with a fresh set of bets for the Run for the Roses. Menez's approach combines pace analysis, pedigree study, and recent workout data to identify value plays among the expected full field of three-year-olds.

This year's Derby field is shaping up to be deep, with several contenders coming off strong prep season performances. The morning line favorite is expected to carry a short price, but Menez warns against blindly backing the chalk. He points to recent history where longshots have hit the board, and he has identified a few horses with the right running style for the classic 1 1/4-mile distance.

Among his top picks, Menez highlights a colt with a strong closing kick and a pedigree that suggests he will handle the Churchill Downs surface. He also recommends a trifecta play that includes a horse currently sitting at 12-1 odds, based on a sharp final fraction in his last race. For exacta players, Menez suggests keying a speed horse who could get loose on the lead if the pace collapses.

The 2026 Derby offers a $3 million purse and a guaranteed spot in the Triple Crown conversation. Post time is set for 6:57 p.m. Eastern. Menez's full card includes win, place, and show bets, as well as multi-race exotics. He advises bettors to watch the track condition and any late scratches before locking in wagers.