Survey: How many touchdowns will Sam Darnold throw in 2026?

July 14, 2026 - 20:29

Sam Darnold surprised the league in 2025, tossing 30 touchdown passes for the Seattle Seahawks in his first season with the team. That performance helped secure a Super Bowl ring, but now the question shifts to what he can do for an encore in 2026.

A recent survey of NFL analysts and oddsmakers suggests a wide range of expectations. Some see Darnold's 30-touchdown season as a career year that will be hard to replicate, especially with defenses now having a full season of film on him in Seattle's system. They project a slight regression, putting his 2026 total somewhere between 24 and 28 scores.

Others point to his improved chemistry with receivers DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, plus a full offseason as the undisputed starter. They argue he can push toward 35 touchdowns, particularly if the offensive line stays healthy and the running game keeps defenses honest.

The consensus in the survey lands around 31 touchdowns, a modest increase that reflects both his proven ability and the natural volatility of quarterback stats. Darnold's arm strength and mobility are no longer question marks. The real test is consistency over a full 17-game schedule without the benefit of surprise.

For a player once written off as a bust, the conversation has shifted from whether he can start to how high his ceiling really is. The 2026 season will provide the answer.